Councilman's Corner -Episode 6: What is Equity?

Understanding Hand Equity in No-Limit Hold’em

One of the most misunderstood concepts in poker is hand equity. Many players know the

word, but few truly understand how to use it at the table. In No-Limit Hold’em , especially in live, league-style games like the Misfits Poker League, understanding equity is a major step toward becoming a stronger, more consistent player.

Equity isn’t about memorizing charts or running calculations mid-hand. It’s about understanding how often your hand wins and using that knowledge to make better decisions over time.

What Is Equity in Poker?

In simple terms, equity is your share of the pot, the percentage of the time your hand will win if all remaining cards are dealt.

Equity is not fixed. It depends on:

• Your hole cards

• The community cards

• Your opponent’s likely range of hands

• The number of players in the pot

This is why poker is a game of incomplete information  and why equity is always an estimate, not an exact number.

Preflop Equity: How Strong Is Your Starting Hand?

Before the flop, every hand has a measurable chance to win against a random opponent. While these numbers shift depending on ranges and position, baseline preflop equity gives players a valuable reference point.

Premium hands like pocket aces or kings dominate most opponents, winning well over 80% of the time heads-up. Strong Broadway hands and medium pairs still perform very well, often winning around 65–75% of the time. More speculative hands, like suited connectors, small pairs, or weak aces, rely more on hitting the board to realize their equity.

The key takeaway for Misfits players is simple: starting hand strength matters, and hands that look “playable” may still be significant underdogs before the flop. When in doubt, fold until you have a better understanding of the strength or weakness of that particular range of hole cards.

Below is a general guide to preflop equities and the strength of your starting hand.

Key things to remember is that these percentages are approximate and utilized in heads-up play. They are designed to give you a general idea of where you stand from an equity position.

Post Flop Equity: Where Decisions Matter Most

Playing your hand preflop is the easy part. Once the flop is dealt, equity becomes more dynamic. Hands can be grouped into three main categories, Made Hands, Drawing Hands, and Showdown Hands.

Made Hands:

Hands like top pair, two pair, or sets often carry strong equity , especially heads-up. Top pair with a good kicker will usually win around 65 - 75% of the time, while two pair and sets dominate most draws. The stronger your hand is the higher the equity.

Once again, a chart showing the approximate equities is helpful for a better understanding of where your hand stands post flop and making a decision on whether or not to continue in the hand.

Drawing Hands:

Most players learn equity through drawing hands. Counting outs and converting them into percentages provides fast, usable estimates at the table.

Flush draws, open-ended straight draws, and combination draws can all justify calls or aggressive bets when the math supports it.

You don’t need exact math during a live Misfits game to see exactly where you stand.

Just use the Rule of 2 and 4:

Flop → River: Number of Outs × 4 ≈ equity %

Turn → River: Number of Outs × 2 ≈ equity %

Flush draw (9 outs)

• Flop: ~36%

• Turn: ~18%

Open-ended straight draw (8 outs)

• Flop: ~32%

• Turn: ~16%

The Math WILL Math! Using this simple formula gets you close enough to make correct decisions in real time.

You don’t need to memorize this chart, just do the math explained above using the outs that you see in the chart based on the hand that you have.

As you can see, flush draws, open-ended straight draws, and combination draws often have substantial equity, even when currently behind. A flush draw on the flop, for example, will complete by the river roughly 36% of the time.

Showdown Hands

Hands like ace-high or king-high may still have equity when opponents miss the board. Understanding this prevents unnecessary folds and encourages smarter bluff-catching decisions.

Figuring out if your opponent missed is an entirely different discussion for another time.

Common Equity Matchups

Poker decisions often come down to familiar matchups:

• A made hand versus a draw is often closer than players expect

• An overpair against two overcards usually wins about 70% of the time

• A set versus a strong draw still needs to fade multiple outs

• One-pair hands lose significant value in multiway pots

These situations highlight why equity is about probability, not certainty.

Equity in Multiway Pots

One of the most important lessons for Misfits Poker League players is how equity changes in multiway situations.

In heads-up pots, a single pair may be a clear favorite. Add more players, and that same hand’s equity drops dramatically. Meanwhile, drawing hands gain value due to better implied odds.

This is why disciplined players tighten up in multiway pots and avoid overcommitting with marginal made hands.

How to Use Equity at the Table

Equity doesn’t need to be exact to be effective. The real goal is to determine whether you are:

• A favorite

• An underdog

• Or roughly racing

Once you know that, you compare your estimated equity to the price the pot is offering (I'll cover that next week). This process replaces emotional decision-making with logic and consistency.

Why Equity Matters in the Misfits Poker League

The Misfits Poker League is built around learning real poker skills that transfer to higher-level play. Understanding equity helps players:

• Make disciplined calls and folds

• Avoid chasing bad draws

• Apply pressure with confidence

• Judge decisions by logic, not results

Final Thought

Poker isn’t about being right every hand. It’s about making decisions that are profitable in the long run. Equity gives you the framework to do exactly that. We’ll continue our discussion next week and we will talk about Pot Odds, Implied Odds, and how they work together with this concept of Equity to give us a more complete picture of this wonderful game of No-Limit Hold’em.

When Misfits Poker League players understand equity, they stop guessing,  and start playing poker with purpose.

Learn the probabilities. Trust the process.And let the math work in your favor.

Until next time, may all your cards be gems and may you never get stacked.

~The Councilman

You can reach the Lance at lance@misfitspoker.com or via FB messenger @lancejpalmer.

Catch him at a venue (our Locations) and ask for his number, he’ll give it to you.

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