Councilman's Corner -Ep. 8: To Imply or Not to Imply...

In Episode 7 of the Councilman’s Corner, we focused on two of the foundational tools for better decisions at the poker table: pot odds and equity. You learned how to compare your chance of winning a hand against the immediate price you’re being offered to call. That’s a huge step forward for your decision-making.

But in no-limit poker, especially in Misfits Poker League tournaments, there’s a third piece of the decision-making puzzle you must understand if you want to elevate your game: implied odds.

While pot odds look only at the chips currently in the pot, implied odds help answer this question:

If I hit my hand, how much more can I realistically win after this street?

In other words, implied odds look beyond what’s there now and include the future chips you expect to win if your draw comes in.

Why Implied Odds Matter in MPL Tournaments

In league play — where stacks vary from deep early to shallow late, and opponents may call light or overvalue top pair — relying only on pot odds sometimes causes you to fold profitable calls or call when you shouldn’t.

Implied odds help you account for how much additional money you can extract from your opponent if you hit your hand. This matters most when:

• you’re drawing to strong hands like nut flushes or sets

• stacks are deep enough that significant future action is possible

• opponents tend to call down light or overvalue hands

Unlike pot odds — which are based strictly on what’s in the pot right now — implied odds take that future value into account. This means a call that looks wrong by pot odds alone can be correct once you factor in what you expect to win later. 

A Simple Example on the Felt

Imagine this familiar MPL scenario:

• You’re on the flop with a flush draw

• Pot is sizable

• Opponent bets

Your pot odds may not justify a call — if you compare only the current pot to your call amount. However, if you know that:

• your opponent will likely pay you off on later streets if you complete your flush,

• and stacks are deep enough for meaningful future bets, then your implied odds can make that call profitable, even if it looks marginal right now.

That’s implied odds in action — it’s about expected future winnings, not just the immediate pot.

Hands That Usually Rely on Implied Odds

Implied odds are most powerful in situations where:

• the hand you’re drawing to wins big pots when it hits

• you can expect that hit to generate additional bets from opponents

Examples include:

• Small/medium pocket pairs — set mining

• Suited connectors and one-gappers

• Nut flush draws

• Strong combo draws

For these hands, pot odds alone often underestimate the true value of calling. That’s because when you hit, the pot can grow large — much larger than what’s in it now.

Stack Size Changes Everything

If you’ve ever wondered when implied odds matter most, here’s the rule of thumb:

• Deep stacks = higher implied odds

  (you can win more if you hit)

• Short stacks = lower implied odds

  (future value is limited)

This is especially relevant in MPL tournaments where the effective stack can swing dramatically over the course of a single night. Early on, with deeper stacks, drawing hands gain value. As blinds rise and stacks shrink, implied odds diminish — and pot odds plus fold equity become the focal point.

But Beware: Reverse Implied Odds

Not all future scenarios are friendly to you. Sometimes the card you’re hoping for could actually hurt you more than help you:

• hitting the draw but being dominated

• completing a hand that’s second best

This is called reverse implied odds, and it reduces the real value of your call. Good implied odds assume that when you hit, you’re likely to win big — not just win.

Bringing It Back to Better Decisions

In Episode 7, we learned that pot odds and equity help us avoid guessing and make math-based calls and folds. Implied odds take that one step further by helping you account for what happens after you hit a hand — not just before.

The next time you’re weighing a call:

1. Check your pot odds — can the call be justified right now?

2. Estimate your equity — how often does your hand improve?

3. Consider implied odds — if you hit, how much can you realistically win?

When all three align, you’ve got a truly informed decision — and that’s the kind of thinking that wins chips and climbs MPL leaderboards.

Until next time, may all your cards be gems and may you never get stacked.

~The Councilman

You can reach the Lance at lance@misfitspoker.com or via FB messenger @lancejpalmer.

Catch him at a venue (our Locations) and ask for his number, he’ll give it to you.

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