Councilman's Corner - Episode 7: Making Better Decisions in Poker
- Lance Palmer
- 2 days ago
- 5 min read
A Misfits Poker League Guide to Making Better Decisions
In the Misfits Poker League, poker isn’t just about winning a single hand — it’s about
learning how to make good decisions consistently.
One of the biggest differences between newer players and improving players is understanding why a call, bet, or fold is correct.
Two of the most important tools every Misfits player should learn are pot odds and equity. These concepts take the guesswork out of tough spots and help you play smarter, more confident poker — whether you’re in a league tournament or playing at a local casino.
We discussed Equity last week and you can review that article here:
Let's continue the discussion by going over Pot Odds, what they are and how they play a part in our decision making process at the poker table.
What Are Pot Odds?
Pot odds measure the relationship between:
How much it costs to call and How much you can win if you call.
To put it another way. At the table, pot odds answer one simple question:
“How often do I need to win this hand for calling to make sense?”
Now, as always there's a bit of mathmatical and/or mental gymnastics that must occur to employ the concept of Pot Odds. Now don't worry, you have nothing to fear. The math is basic and mental accuity required is minimal. I assure you, you can do this.
Once you learn this, the game becomes enjoyable on an entirely different level. Let's learn together by starting with an example.
Misfits Poker League Example
You’re in a league tournament:
Pot: 10,000 chips
Opponent bets: 5,000
It costs you 5,000 to call
Total pot after calling: 20,000
Your pot odds are 4:1, meaning you need to win at least 25% of the time for calling to be profitable. Let's find out how we got there with an example.
You're in a league tournament and the current pot is 10,000 chips. Your opponent bets 5,000 chips so it will cost you 5,000 chips to call and move forward with the hand. Remember this is just the POT ODDS portion of the total equation. Ultimately, we will be comparing our POT ODDS to our EQUITY (See Episode 6) to determine our final action.
Identifying the current pot and the bet.
After the bet the total pot is 15,000:
Pot before the bet: 10,000
Opponent bets: 5,000
Total: 15,000
Detemining the cost to call.
Your cost to call is 5,000
This call of 5,000 would go into the current pot of 15,000
This makes calculating the post simple.
5,000 (your call) + 15,000 (current pot) = 20,000 (Total or Full Pot)
This pot of 20,000 is the full pot YOU can win if you call your opponents bet of 5,000.
So:
Your Risk = 5,000
Your Reward = 20,000
Now we simply express Pot Odds as a ratio: (I know the word ratio scares a lot of people, but let's just pretend that everything is gonna be ok and move through the process anyway.)
Pot odds compare what you can win to what it costs you.
So your pot odds are 4:1(you’re risking 1 unit to win 4 units)
Now all we need to do is convert this RATIO to a percentage (once again, don't fret the math, there's some tips & tricks, ie: basic memorization, along the way that will help you with this and make it enjoyable).
Let's convert the Pot Odds required Equity. This will find the minimum win percentage needed to break even:
If your hand can win more than 25% of the time, the call is good. If not, folding is usually the correct play.
Here’s a quick reference chart to help you convert your pot odds to the proper percentage.
I won't bother explaining the math here...just put these to memory and focus on calculating the math explained above for your Pot Odds.
Misfits Quick Memory Trick:
2:1 = 50%
3:1 = 25%
4:1 = 20%
5:1 ≈ 17%
If you remember just these four, you’re already ahead of most players.
How Pot Odds and Equity Work Together
Let's put these two pieces of the puzzle together!
This is the core idea every Misfits player should remember:
If your equity is greater than the equity required by your pot odds, calling is correct.
TIP:
MPL Example: Flush Draw on the Turn
You’re on the turn with a flush draw:
You have 9 outs
this equates to about 18% (9x2) equity with one card to come
Pot = 13,500
Opponents Bet: 3,500
Total Actual Pot = 17,000
Your Call (Risk) = 3,500
Best way to do this is to eyeball the pot and estimate how much is there. The number doesn't need to be exact. For example, let's say you look at the pot size of 17,000 and guess there's 16,500. Remember this pot INCLUDES the amount you would be calling of 3,500.
So the pot you are looking would be estimated at 13,000 and THEN you would add your call of 3,500 to make it a total estimate of 16,500
That's fine, now let's that take whatever amount your call is, in this case, 3,500.
Do whatever math that you are most comfortable with in your head:
You can take:
OR
Once you've estimated the pot. Estimate how many times the bet of 3,500 goes into the pot. In this case, let's use 4 and 5 times only because I know that 3 is too small (3x3,500=10,500, a difference of 16,500-10,500 = 6,000) and 6 is too large (6 x 3,500 = 21,000, a difference of 21,000-16,500 = 4,500). Then do that math and find out which total is closest to your Pot Estimate of 16,500. Whichever mulitplier is closest is the number you'll use for the ratio.
16,500 is closer to 17,500 (1,000 chip difference) than 14,000 (2,500 chip difference)
So we will use the mutiplier of 5 as our ratio.
OR
Pick a method that is mathematically sound and works best for you that gets you relatively close to the correct answer.
Accurately rounding and estimating is your friend and keeps the "HARD MATH" out of the way.
Regardless of the method you use, if the Pot Odds are 5:1 and require 17% (see the chart above), your Equity is slighty greater than your Pot Odds, You should CALL!
If the Pot Odds are 3:1 and require 25% (see the chart ablove), the smart play is to FOLD, unless Implied Odds apply. Don't worry, we'll discuss this next week.
This comparison is what separates disciplined players from players playing on a hope and a prayer.
The more you do this, the easier it gets.
ADVANCED TIP #1
ADVANCED TIP #2
Hopefully you'll be able to utilize these concepts the next time you are on the felt.
Just remember, growth only happens when you study and ask questions about what you're learning.
After all, that's what Misfits Poker is all about. Play, Learn, Grow, Repeat.
Until next time, may all your cards be gems and may you never get stacked.
~The Councilman
You can reach the Lance at lance@misfitspoker.com or via FB messenger @lancejpalmer.
Catch him at a venue (our Locations) and ask for his number, he’ll give it to you.
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